Lay multiple horses

This is a method that I often use to win more money from a race. You need to know which races you can do this in. And which horses to pick.

Multiple horses – single liability

When you lay two or more horses in the same race, only one of them can win. So there is only one liability. The bet with the highest liability is your only liability. So the other lay bets get a “free ride”.

Which races

Find races where you have a good idea of which horses could win. By this I mean you can see a few likely winners but you’re not confident enough to back them. But you are sure that one of them will win.

1. Look for races with 4 or more horses with odds below 10.0.
2. Cross off the ones that you think have a good chance of winning .
3. If you have 2 or more horses left with odds below 10.0 they could be very good multiple lay bets.

With practice this can be very profitable!

Three things to look for

1. Low odds
2. Horse likely to lose
3. Horses that can win

What to do

Decide on the max odds you will lay at. I recommend about 7.0.

Work through the race cards looking for horses with low odds. Use the Racing Post or Betfair as a guide. Make a note of all races that have low priced horses up to your max odds. You have probably eliminated half the races already.

Now go through your noted races one at a time. Look at the form of the horses. Forget about the jockeys, it’s the horse that has to run, not the jockey. Look for the lowest priced horse (up to your max odds) that does not have good form. If you find one, it is a possible lay.

Now the important part. Find two horses in the same race that have the form to win the race. The odds are not important. If you can find them, your possible lay becomes a real lay bet.

A few each day

This simple method will produce four or five lay bets a day. Many of them will be favourites that lose. It’s up to you how you read the form.

Bet responsibly

Practice without betting first to see how you get on. When you do bet with money, keep the bets small. A £10 lay at odds of 7.0 on a horse that wins will cost you £60.

Can’t make a profit

This has happened to all of us. You get some good winning bets. But you end the day losing money. This can be changed.

What you have to do is easy. Doing it is not so easy. It requires discipline. And clear thinking.

Money management

Sounds boring. And it is. However, good money management keeps you in control. And that is essential.

This is about having a betting bank. Knowing how much to bet on a horse. And when to stop.

Betting bank

A betting bank is the money you have available to bet with. It should be deposited into your account at Betfair. You could also put only part of it on your Betfair account. Then you must have the rest of the bank immediately available to be sent to Betfair if needed.

How much should your betting bank be? This depends on the bet’s liability and the real chance of it losing. We do lay bets only. The longer the odds, the higher the liability, but less chance of losing.

Work it out

Let’s work this out in reverse. The minimum bet is £2. Say our range of odds is from 1.0 to 10.0. (Most lay bets will occur in this range). The maximum liability would be £2 x 9. £18. You won’t get long losing runs, but you could get two or three losing bets the same day.  I use a bank of ten times the maximum liability on any one bet. That would be 10 x £18. £180.

So in order to bet at the minimum level of £2 you need a bank of £180. To put this in round figures, your bet should be no more than 1% of you bank.

Split the bank

If you only make a few bets a day you could safely split the bank. Put half in your Betfair account and keep the rest in reserve. You may never need to use the reserve.

Know how much you want to win

Before you make any bets decide how much you want to win. This is really important. The more you try to win in one day the more likely you are to lose. So don’t try to win too much.

I have found that it’s quite easy to win £8 with £2 bets. Of course with commission the amount will be a bit lower. So I aim to win about 4% of the bank each day. No more. If I get close to my target I stop. That’s enough. Remember that money invested in a savings account might only earn 4% per year.

Oh no a loser

If you hit a losing bet, what should you do? It depends on how many races are still to be run that day.

If it’s near the end of the races, forget it. Stop. Try again tomorrow. Don’t try to recover the losses. You’ll get them back over a few days.

If it’s near the middle of the races, either stop or bet on to recover half the losses.

If it’s near the beginning of the races, try to recover most of the losses by betting on. Of course you should only do this if there are still some races you want to bet on.

After making a losing bet just try to limit the damage, if possible. Don’t continue trying to make a profit.

Make it quick

Get in, make the profit and get out fast. The further you bet on one day, the more likely you are to lose. And the less chance there is to recover.

Just look at the odds

The betting market tells you which races to bet in. It makes no difference what type of race it is. The number of runners is not important. We don’t care what the going is. And we are not interested in what the jockey had for breakfast.

One (odds-against) horse dominates market

Races where one horse dominates the market are not good for laying in. If the favourite loses, anything could win. See also “odds-on favourite” below.

In these races the favourite has a short price. Between 2.0 and about 3.0. The next in the betting is a group of closely priced horses. They are priced from about 7.0 to about 10.0.

The favourites in these races often lose. They lose about 64% of the time. If you must bet in this kind of race, lay the favourite. The other horses either have a good chance of winning or their odds are very high. Best to avoid these races.

Races with odds-on favourite

When there is an odds-on favourite, the only horse worth laying is the favourite. The liability on these bets is very low.

The success rate of odds-on favourites is only 50%. When the favourite loses, the winner is usually the second or third in the betting. The other horses will be at very long odds.

So there is a serious risk that the 2nd or 3rd fav wins. The rest are at far too long odds to take a chance on. These are not good races for laying horses in unless you lay the favourite.

Two horses dominate market

Races where two horses dominate the market are very good for laying in. The winner is likely to be one of the two market leaders. They win about 65% of the time.

In these races the top two have short prices. Around 3.0 to 4.0. The horses next in the betting are spread out from about 8.0 upwards.

Look for horses priced from 8.0 to about 12.0. This a good source of losers for laying.

Three horses dominate the market

Races where three horses dominate the market are also very good for laying in. The winner is usually one of the market leaders. They win about 80% of the time.

These races have three horses clear at the top of the market. They are usually priced at about 3.5 to 6.0. Next horse in the betting is probably about 10.0.

In these races horses priced from 10.0 to about 15.0 are a good prospect for laying. These are long odds. So be aware that the liability will be very high if the horse wins.

The ones that lose

Betting systems that increase the stake after a losing bet. These will lose you lots of money. Never increase your stake because you have lost a bet.

This type of system includes Martingale. There are many versions of this. All of them involve chasing your losses.

The idea is simple. You place a bet. If it loses, you increase the stake for your next bet. You keep increasing until you make a profit or run out of money.

These systems hope that you won’t hit a long losing run. But losing runs happen all the time. For example: You place 10 losing £10 bets in a row . With Martingale system you would lose £5120. Hmm.

And the ones that win

There are two types of betting systems that can really help you to win money. They are:

1. Level stakes.
2. Increasing stake after winner.

Let’s take a look at these two methods.

Level stakes

With level stakes, all bets are the same. So you don’t chase losses. Your bets never escalate out of control.

Increasing stake after winner

This method is popular with card players. It is also the method used in the very successful Maria system. As you increase the stake, you are betting with money that you have won. The further you go, the less risk you have of losing your own money.

You only need to “increase after winner” if you are starting with a small bank.

If you already have a large bank, just use level stakes. It is simple and very effective.

How to make money

Making money depends on the quality of your selections. No staking plan can make money from bad bets. Your bets must return level stakes profits. If your selections can’t do this you will lose money.

This doesn’t mean all your selections have to win. You just need enough good bets to cover the bad ones with a bit left over. The bit that is left over is your profit.

You need to find good selections each day to bet on. Then you bet them at level stakes. This is what professional gamblers do.

Learn how to win

You now know which staking plan to use. Next you need to know which horses to bet on. How to make your selections.

I’ll give you lots of help with this. You can learn how to win from the articles I’m posting on Horse-Layer.com. My next article will be about picking the best races to lay horses in.

Too many variables

Here are some of the variable factors that influence the result of a race:

1. Horse’s ability.
2. Race type.
3. Race distance.
4. Jockey skill.
5. Stable form.
6. Racecourse.
7. Weather and “going”.
8. Number of runners.
9. Starting position (draw).
10. Unseen conditions.

Horse’s ability

The official rating of the horse is a good guide to it’s ability. You can find this in the Racing Post.

Race type

During a horse’s career, it will run in different types of race. There are about 10 main types of race. All different. Form in one race type may or may not transfer to another race type.

Race distance

This can vary from 5 furlongs to 4 1/2 miles (36 furlongs). Some horses are capable of winning over many different distances. Others are only good at certain distances.

Jockey skill

A top pro jockey will usually beat an apprentice or an amateur, on equally capable horses. This can be easy to assess. Use the Racing Post.

Stable form

Stables (trainers) go through good and bad patches. Fairly easy to assess. This info is available in the Racing Post.

Racecourse

There are about 60 official racecourses in the UK. They’re all different. Left-handed or right-handed. Flat, undulating or galloping. Wide or tight corners. Uphill or flat finish. And so on.

Some horses are successful on many different courses, others are not. You can check the horse’s past form to see if it is suited by a certain course. You can’t check if it will like a course that it has never raced on. But form from a similar type of course could be useful.

Weather and “going”

The weather has a direct effect on the “going” of the course. The “going” is the condition of the turf at the course. It can vary from “firm” to “heavy”. The norm is “good”. “Firm” is like a tennis court. “Heavy” is like a peat bog. The scale is; Firm, good to firm, good, good to soft, soft, heavy.

“All Weather” (AW) tracks are not much affected by the weather. The going is usually “standard”. But it may vary to “fast” or “slow”.

Some horses only run well on going that suits them. Other horses run well on any going.

High temperature can affect some horses. There are even horses that don’t like to run in the rain.

Number of runners

In short sprint races, the number of runners can affect the outcome. For example, a race over 5 furlongs, with lots  of runners. Horses that start slowly have little chance to get to the front.

When there are a lot of runners, horses can get “boxed in” or stuck at the back. The shorter the race, the less chance there is for the horse to break through.

Starting position (draw)

This only applies to flat racing. Sometimes there is an advantage in starting from a certain position. Often it doesn’t matter. Some horses are more affected than others by the draw.

Unseen conditions

Does the jockey have a hangover or has her mother just been taken ill? Is the trainer angry with the horse’s owner? Is the horse in a good mood? There are many invisible factors that can seriously affect the performance of the horse. These are very difficult to assess.

Compare horses

When you assess one horse’s chances of winning (or losing) you need to consider all of the factors in the list. Then you must do it again for all horses in the race. Then compare your notes for each horse.

Some pro gamblers make this task easier by specialising. They follow, say, 3 year olds at 8 furlongs. This way there is less to do each day, giving plenty of time for an in-depth study. They then become expert at that type of race.

Too complex for computers

As you see, there are many factors involved. Even computers cannot accurately predict the winner of most races.

Real expert advice

You can greatly improve your success rate by using real expert advice. We will soon be offering this in our new Tipping section. The service will offer the same selections that we bet on. After out bets are on, of course.

Favourite has lowest SP

A favourite is always the horse with the lowest SP. This does not mean that it has the most money bet on it. Often it doesn’t have. It is simply the horse with the lowest SP. Another horse can have more money on it but not be the lowest priced.

This does happen

An example. Horse “A” has the lowest SP at 4.0 and horse “B” has an SP of 5.0 . Horse “A” is the favourite. Perhaps there was £1000 of bets on “A” and backers and layers were trading at 4.0  at the off. Horse “B” might have had £2000 in bets but the backers and layers were trading at 5.0 when the race started.

Horse “B” has more money on it then horse “A”. But horse “A” is the favourite because it has the lowest SP.

False assumptions

Like many things in life, the meaning of “favourite” is based on false assumptions. Punters just see the shortest priced horse, marked as “fav”, and they assume that it has the most money bet on it.

Easy to use

It’s much easier to use decimal odds than it is to use the old style fractional odds.

Decimal odds look like this: 4.0 or 2.75. Fractional odds look like this: 3/1 or 7/4.

What we need to know

There are 3 things we need to know about the decimal odds:

1. How to calculate the payouts on “back” bets.
2. How to calculate the loss on “lay” bets.
3. How to calculate the horse’s share of the book.

1. Back bet payouts

It’s really simple.

If the horse wins we get the stake back plus we get the stake multiplied by the decimal odds.

If the horse loses we lose the stake.

An example. We back a horse with £10 and it wins at odds of 4.0. Our payout is £10 x 4.0 = £40. If the horse lost, we would lose £10.

2. Lay bet loses

These bets are a bit more difficult to explain.

If the horse wins, we lose. The amount that we lose is the stake multiplied by “the decimal odds minus 1″.

If the horse loses, we win. We get the stake back plus we win an amount equal to the stake.

An example. We lay a horse with £10 and it wins at odds of 4.0. Our loss is £10 x (4.0 – 1) = £10 x 3.0 = £30. If the hose had lost, we would get our £10 back plus we would have won £10 . So the payout on this horse losing would be £10 + £10  = £20.

3. Share of book

The horse/s share of the book is the same as the horse’s chance of winning. So it is important to be able to calculate it. This is really simple with decimal odds.

Percentage share (chance of winning) is 100 divided by the odds.

An example: Our horse has odds of 4.0 . It’s share of the book is 100/4.0 = 25%. So, the horse’s chance of winning is also 25%

Conversion table

Click here to see our UK odds conversion table.

Not as easy as you might think. Well, it’s easy to find losers. But it takes know-how to make money from them.

Bookmakers at a race course

First there were bookmakers

Bookmakers are layers of odds. They put up money that the horse will lose. Punters can then back the horse to win, at the odds offered by the bookie. With the bookie being the layer,  the punters can only be backers. That’s how it used to be.

Then came Betfair

Then around about 2000, Betfair was born. Betfair is the world’s biggest betting exchange. With Betfair, one person lays money at an offered price and another person can then back the horse to the amount of money available, at the price offered.

Bets must be matched

For a bet to be “on” it has to be matched by an equal bet of the other type. So, if one person wants to back a horse she can only do so if another person is laying that horse, with enough money, at the required odds. This means that half of the players on Betfair are backers and the other half are layers.

A lay bet

So how does laying work? Simple. It is the opposite of backing.  Here’s an example.

A horse has a price of 3.0. I think it will lose. So I put a lay bet in the market on that horse. Let’s say I lay £10 on the horse at the price of 3.0. and the bet gets matched.

If the horse loses, I get my £10 back plus I win £9.50 (£10 minus Betfair’s commission of 5%). The amount that I can win is equal to the amount that I layed on the horse, less the Betfair commission. If I had layed £50, I would have got my £50 back plus I’d have won £47.50.

What if the horse wins the race? I will have to “settle” the bet at the odds minus 1, multiplied by £10.
(3.0-1) x £10 = 2 x £10 = £20. I would lose £20. The risk (liability) is always the odds minus 1, multiplied by the amount layed. If I had layed £50, I’d have lost £100.

Most horses lose

Don’t be put off by the high cost of bad bets. Most horses lose. Even 66% of favourites lose. Many horses never win a race. It’s much easier to find a short priced horse that loses than it is to find one that wins.