Some races are much better than others for laying horses in. Which ones?
Just look at the odds
The betting market tells you which races to bet in. It makes no difference what type of race it is. The number of runners is not important. We don’t care what the going is. And we are not interested in what the jockey had for breakfast.
One (odds-against) horse dominates market
Races where one horse dominates the market are not good for laying in. If the favourite loses, anything could win. See also “odds-on favourite” below.
In these races the favourite has a short price. Between 2.0 and about 3.0. The next in the betting is a group of closely priced horses. They are priced from about 7.0 to about 10.0.
The favourites in these races often lose. They lose about 64% of the time. If you must bet in this kind of race, lay the favourite. The other horses either have a good chance of winning or their odds are very high. Best to avoid these races.
Races with odds-on favourite
When there is an odds-on favourite, the only horse worth laying is the favourite. The liability on these bets is very low.
The success rate of odds-on favourites is only 50%. When the favourite loses, the winner is usually the second or third in the betting. The other horses will be at very long odds.
So there is a serious risk that the 2nd or 3rd fav wins. The rest are at far too long odds to take a chance on. These are not good races for laying horses in unless you lay the favourite.
Two horses dominate market
Races where two horses dominate the market are very good for laying in. The winner is likely to be one of the two market leaders. They win about 65% of the time.
In these races the top two have short prices. Around 3.0 to 4.0. The horses next in the betting are spread out from about 8.0 upwards.
Look for horses priced from 8.0 to about 12.0. This a good source of losers for laying.
Three horses dominate the market
Races where three horses dominate the market are also very good for laying in. The winner is usually one of the market leaders. They win about 80% of the time.
These races have three horses clear at the top of the market. They are usually priced at about 3.5 to 6.0. Next horse in the betting is probably about 10.0.
In these races horses priced from 10.0 to about 15.0 are a good prospect for laying. These are long odds. So be aware that the liability will be very high if the horse wins.
